Survey shows Muslim voters in TX, GA, IL and NC list economy as a major concern, disapprove of Trump job performance, and prefer Dem control of Congress.
The Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), the nation’s largest Muslim civil rights and advocacy organization, and CAIR Action, one of the nation’s leading Muslim political organizations, today released a pre-election primary survey of 1,086 registered Muslim voters from four states – Georgia, Illinois, North Carolina, and Texas – showing high expected turnout among Muslim voters, overwhelming opposition to a new U.S. war in the Middle East, strong disapproval of President Donald Trump, and broad unwillingness to vote for candidates who deny that genocide has occurred in Gaza.
This semi-national survey is intended to provide a snapshot of American Muslim voters’ views, attitudes, expected voter turnout, and party affiliation on the eve of the 2026 primary election season, following the weekend launch of a new U.S. regime-change war in the Middle East.
Primary elections in the surveyed states are scheduled for March 3 (Texas and North Carolina), March 17 (Illinois), and May 19 (Georgia).
Key Survey Findings:
- High expected turnout: Over eighty percent of respondents (83%) say they will definitely, probably, or have already voted in their state’s primary.
- Strong disapproval of President Trump: More than four in five respondents (85%) disapprove of the president’s job performance, including a large majority (77%) who strongly disapprove.
- Foreign policy dominates voting decisions: Foreign policy, including war, Gaza, and broader Middle East issues, ranks as the most important factor influencing how respondents plan to vote, ahead of the economy and civil rights concerns, followed by “Economy / Cost of Living” and then “Civil Rights / Discrimination / Islamophobia.”
- Overwhelming opposition to war on Iran: More than eight in ten respondents (83%) oppose the U.S. and Israel’s war on Iran.
- Genocide denial is politically disqualifying for most: Nearly seven in ten respondents (66%) say they would not vote for a candidate who denies that genocide has occurred in Gaza.
- Large Independent bloc: The plurality of registered Muslim voter respondents identify as politically independent (41%), 53% if we include Unsure, exceeding those identifying as Democrats (36%) or Republicans (7%).
- Preference for Democratic control of Congress: Nearly two-thirds (66%) favor Democratic control, while fewer than 10% prefer Republican control. A majority also plan to participate in Democratic primaries (60%), with smaller shares indicating Republican or other party participation and a sizable portion still undecided.
- Later this week, CAIR, CAIR Action, and Community Pulse Polling will issue an expanded report on the gender and racial differences in Muslim voters, highlighting any notable differences in turnout expectations, issue priorities, and candidate support between male and female respondents.
In a joint statement, CAIR and CAIR Action said:
“These findings make clear that American Muslim voters in key states are deeply engaged in election season and deeply alarmed by the direction of our nation.
“The Muslim voters who plan to turn out to vote in Georgia, Illinois, Texas, and North Carolina overwhelmingly identify the economy and foreign policy as top concerns, disapprove of President Trump’s job performance, oppose the U.S. war on Iran, and express automatic opposition to candidates who deny that a genocide occurred in Gaza.
“As the primary season begins, policymakers should understand that positions on the economy and U.S. foreign policy directly influence Muslim voter attitudes. American Muslim voters are highly engaged, increasingly independent, and prepared to make their voices heard at the ballot once again.
“Candidates seeking the support of Muslim communities should take notice of American Muslim voter concerns. This survey demonstrates that Muslim voters are organized, informed, and ready to participate in shaping the nation’s future.”
Methodology: CAIR and CAIR Action’s 2026 pre-primary survey was conducted by Community Pulse Polling via text message to a randomized list of verified registered Muslim voters from February 28 to March 1, 2026. The survey has a confidence level of 90% and a margin of error of ±3.31 percentage points. All survey responses were weighted by race and gender.
Demographic Makeup: After weighting, the survey included 45% female respondents, 53% male respondents, 2% unknown. Weighted responses by race included 38% Asian or Pacific Islander, 28% Black, 28% White, 2% Hispanic or Latino, 3% Other or Not Identified.
CAIR, CAIR Action Survey Questions & Responses:
Q.1: How likely are you to vote in your state’s upcoming primary election?
Already voted early: 6%
Definitely voting: 59%
Probably voting: 18%
Not Likely: 6%
Not Voting: 5%
Not sure: 6%
Q.2: If you vote in the primary, which party’s primary do you plan to participate in?
Democratic Primary: 60%
Republican Primary: 9%
Other Party Primary: 5%
Not Sure: 25%
My State Does Not Have Party Primaries: 1%
Q.3: If the general election for Congress were held today, which party would you prefer to control Congress?
Democratic Party: 66%
Republican Party: 8%
Not sure: 21%
Q.4: Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Donald Trump is handling his job?
Strongly Approve: 7%
Somewhat Approve: 3%
Somewhat Disapprove: 8%
Strongly Disapprove: 77%
Not sure: 5%
Q.5: Rank the issues that matter most to you when deciding how to vote
1. Foreign Policy / War / Gaza & Middle East (33%)
2. Economy / Cost of Living (18%)
3. Civil Rights / Discrimination / Islamophobia (17%)
4. Healthcare (8%)
5. Taxes / Government Spending (5%)
6. Crime / Public Safety (4%)
7. Education (4%)
8. Climate / Environment (4%)
Q.6: Generally speaking, do you consider yourself:
Democrat: 36%
Republican: 7%
Independent: 41%
Not Sure: 12%
Other: 5%
Q.7: Do you support or oppose the US and Israel’s war on Iran?
Support: 6%
Oppose: 83%
Neither: 11%
Q.8: Would you be willing or unwilling to vote for a candidate who denies that Israel has committed genocide in Gaza?
Will not vote for them: 66%
Will vote for them: 7%
Neither: 10%
Did Not Answer: 17%
CAIR is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit and America’s largest Muslim civil rights organization. Its mission is to enhance understanding of Islam, protect civil rights, promote justice, and empower American Muslims. As a 501(c)3 nonprofit, CAIR does not endorse or oppose candidates for office and makes no claims as to the favorability of one candidate being elected over another.
CAIR Action is a 501(c)(4) advocacy organization dedicated to engaging, educating, and mobilizing Muslim voters, training emerging leaders, and advancing policy priorities that improve community well-being and representation.
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CONTACT: CAIR National Deputy Director Edward Ahmed Mitchell, 404-285-9530, e-Mitchell@cair.com; CAIR Government Affairs Director Robert McCaw, 202-742-6448, rmccaw@cair.com; CAIR National Communications Director Ibrahim Hooper, 202-744-7726, ihooper@cair.com; CAIR National Communications Manager Ismail Allison, 202-770-6280, iallison@cair.com; Basim Elkarra, Executive Director, CAIR Action, belkarra@cairaction.org; CAIR Action Communications, media@cairaction.org