New CAIR Action Poll Shows Path to Victory in IL-09 Through Turnout of Accountability-Focused Voters

CAIR Action and Illinois Muslim Action Network (ILMAN) Jointly Endorse Kat Abughazaleh

Chicago, IL — February 25, 2026CAIR Action today released new polling in Illinois’ 9th Congressional District Democratic primary, showing a highly competitive race shaped by turnout dynamics and strong voter demand for accountability, checks on power, ICE oversight, and independence from corporate and special-interest influence. 

Alongside the release of the poll, CAIR Action and the Illinois Muslim Action Network (ILMAN) are jointly endorsing Kat Abughazaleh for Congress.

The survey, conducted February 15–20, 2026, among 638 likely Democratic primary voters (±3.9% margin of error), reveals a fragmented field and a clear path to victory driven by mobilizing lower-propensity voters motivated by 

  • Democracy protection
  • ICE oversight
  • Checks on concentrated power.

Lower-Propensity Voters Will Decide Election

Nearly half of the modeled electorate consists of voters who are less likely to participate in primaries but are highly motivated by core accountability issues:

  • Checks and balances / limiting unchecked presidential power (65.5%)
  • ICE abuse without accountability (57.8%)
  • Corporate and billionaire influence over elections (37.4%)

The data makes one conclusion clear: this election will not be decided by persuasion alone. It will be decided by who can expand participation and mobilize infrequent voters.

AIPAC Alignment Viewed as a Political Liability

The poll also finds that support for or ties to AIPAC or the pro-Israel lobby is a net negative in this Democratic primary electorate:

  • 59.3% say such ties make them less likely to support a candidate
  • Only 10.5% say it makes them more likely

Human rights concerns remain highly salient in the district, with strong intensity among a significant segment of voters.

A Strategic Decision Rooted in Data

Kat Abughazaleh has centered her campaign on government accountability, civil rights protections, and independence from corporate PACs and special interests. The path forward in IL-09 requires mobilizing new voters and consolidating accountability-focused support.

After reviewing the data and evaluating the dynamics of a fragmented field, it became clear that the most viable opportunity to expand turnout and consolidate this accountability coalition lies with Kat Abughazaleh’s campaign.

Both CAIR Action and ILMAN recognize and deeply respect Trustee Bushra Amiwala’s historic leadership and her impact on Muslim civic engagement. From her service on the Skokie School Board to her continued advocacy for young people and principled public service, Bushra has been a trailblazer for our community.

We also recognize State Senator Mike Simmons as a strong and consistent ally who has stood with our communities in advancing civil rights, justice, and human dignity.

This endorsement decision was not made lightly.

In a race where the current frontrunner holds 31% and benefits from higher name recognition, victory will require disciplined coalition-building and aggressive turnout expansion. The polling shows Abughazaleh has a narrow but real pathway to consolidate the anti-status-quo vote and mobilize the “growth electorate” necessary to win.

This decision is about building durable political power, and winning.

“IL-09 voters are demanding accountability, accountability in Washington, accountability for abuses of power, and accountability from politicians who put special interests ahead of communities,” said Basim Elkarra, National Executive Director of CAIR Action. “This race will be decided by who can mobilize new and infrequent voters around those issues. Kat Abughazaleh is the candidate best positioned to energize that coalition and expand the electorate.”

ILMAN leadership added:
“This district is ready for principled leadership that prioritizes civil rights, checks unchecked power, and stands firmly for human dignity. The path to victory is expanding turnout among communities that are too often ignored. We are committed to organizing, mobilizing, and building that winning coalition.”

About the Poll

The survey was conducted by Molitico from February 15–20, 2026, among 638 likely Democratic primary voters in IL-09. Results were weighted by age, gender, race, and primary turnout score. The margin of error is ±3.9% at the 95% confidence level.

CAIR Action is a 501(c)4 organization. Our mission is to engage, educate, and mobilize Muslim voters, train emerging leaders, and champion policy priorities that enhance the well-being and representation of Muslim communities. Through our work, we aim to foster a more equitable and inclusive democratic society where the rights and voices of Muslims are acknowledged and respected. 

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CONTACT:Basim Elkarra, Executive Director, CAIR Action, belkarra@cairaction.org
CAIR Action Communications, media@cairaction.org